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The Successful Investor's Perspective: All About Timing? Banner

The Successful Investor’s Perspective: All About Timing?

The Successful Investor's Perspective: All About Timing?

After December’s market plunge and January’s surge, we can forgive investors for feeling whiplash. During times of extreme volatility, it is especially common for investors to conclude, whether on a conscious or unconscious level, that the market is not for them. For that reason, it is worth reflecting on the market over a working lifetime.  

The chart below depicts 40 years of market returns and the consumer price index (CPI).  Over the long run, Certificate of Deposit (CD) rates return about 2% over inflation, so we used the CPI as a proxy.  

Successful Investors Have Perspective

I chose 40 years because it typifies the time period most people earn income through their work.

Over that length of time, whether you’re looking at stock funds whose graphs are moving upward or have your money in a CD whose value grows almost horizontally, you must ask yourself which line is right for you.  

If you choose the orange level line with little fluctuation you need to know that the money you will have to finance your retirement is almost totally dependent on how much you can save. This is because the internal growth will be very low.

Choosing the blue line, realizing it’s more jagged, says that you want your money to work as hard for you as you work for it. As you reach a certain point in your career you may find that your investments are actually earning more money than you’re getting paid from employment.  

The process of investing involves high points and low points. The view from the peaks is magnificent while the terror of the slide into the valley can be traumatic. But when you look back, having arrived at the destination of financial independence, the oscillation that had caused so much grief can be plotted as a straight upward line between two points. It’s not easy negotiating that perilous ascent, but it may help knowing that in the end it really will smooth out if you stick with it.

Some people can take this financial journey by themselves.  Many others need guidance on how to invest and the psychological support they need in order to stay the course when fear takes over.

The principals at Korving & Company have been doing this for over 30 years.  We invite you to find out how we can help you.

What does planning mean for you?

Financial planning is about more than assets, investments and net worth.  It’s about what you want to do with your money and why.  It’s about identifying your concerns, expectations and goals.  It’s about how you feel and what you want.

Financial planning helps address common fears and concerns such as health care costs, outliving your money and the best time to file for Social Security benefits.

The “Confidence Meter” helps you gauge how likely you are to reach your goals and whether you are on track instead of focusing on headlines.

Financial planning takes your risk tolerance into account.  You will get a “Risk Number” that guides you to the kind of investment you should have.

Learn more about how financial planning can help you by contacting us at Korving & Company today.

The most common investment mistake made by financial advisors

Bill Miller beat the S&P 500 index 15 years in a row as portfolio manager of Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust (1991-2005), a record for diversified mutual fund managers.  He was interviewed by WealthManagement.com about active vs. passive management.
We have written a number of articles about the mistakes individual investors make.  But what about mistakes that financial advisors make?  We are, after all, fallible and make errors of judgment.  And like all mortals we cannot predict the future.
Here’s Bill Miller’s assessment about traps that financial advisors fall into:

One problem is how they deal with risk. There is a lot more action on perceived risks, exposing clients to risks they aren’t aware of. For example, since the financial crisis people have overweighted bonds and underweighted stocks. People react to market prices rather than understanding that’s a bad thing to do.
Most importantly, most advisors are too short-term oriented, because their clients are too short-term oriented. There’s a focus on market timing, and all of that is mostly useless. The equity market is all about time, not timing. It’s about staying at the table.
Think of the equity market like a casino, except you own it: You’re the house. You get an 8-9 percent annual return. Casinos operate on a lower margin than that and make money. Bad periods are to be expected. If anything, that’s when you want more tables.

We agree.  That’s one of the reasons we are choosy about the clients we accept. One of the foremost regrets we have is taking on clients who hired us for the wrong reasons.  One substantial client came to us as the tech market was heating up in the late 1990s.  He asked us to create a portfolio of tech stocks so that he could participate in the growth of that sector.  We accepted that challenge, but it was a mistake.  When the tech bubble burst and his portfolio went down and we lost a client.  But it taught us a valuable lesson: say no to clients who focus strictly on short-term portfolio performance.  Our role is to invest our clients’ serious money for long term goals.
Like Bill Miller, we want to have the odds on our side.  We want to be the “house,” not the gambler.  The first rule of making money is not to lose it.  The second rule is to always observe the first rule.
To determine client and portfolio risk we use sophisticated analytical programs for insight into prospective clients actual risk tolerance.  That allows us to match our portfolios to a client’s individual risk tolerance.  In times of market exuberance we remind our clients that trees don’t grow to the sky.  And in times of market declines we encourage our clients to stay the course, knowing that time in the market is more important than timing the market.

Advantages of Financial Advisors

What is the real value to hiring a financial advisor, and who uses them?  What is the value proposition?  What makes one car with four doors and wheels worth $300,000 and other $30,000?  Although we might have an answer, the answer differs from person to person.

Why People Use Financial Advisors

People use financial advisors for many reasons.  Some use them because they absolutely need them, others because they want them. Paying a fee for advice and guidance to a professional who uses the tools and tactics of a CFP™ (CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™) and an experienced Registered Investment Advisor who is a fiduciary can add meaningful value compared to what the average investor experiences.

Anxious About Finances

Many middle-class investors are anxious about their finances and are not interested in learning the details of managing their money.  This anxiety often results in money left on the sidelines because they don’t know what to do or are afraid of making mistakes. That means earning a fraction of 1% at the bank when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up over 25% in the last 12 months.

Coaching

There are others who are interested in learning about investing and may want to hire an advisor to “look over their shoulder.”  They want to hire an “investment coach.”

Too Busy For Investing

A third category are people who hire professionals because they are busy doing things that are more important to them: building a career or a business, being with family, or living an active retirement.  They hire an expert to manage their money the same way they hire a lawyer for estate planning, a CPA to prepare their taxes, and a doctor to keep them healthy.

Mistakes

A fourth category is people who were making their own investment decisions but ended up making a huge financial mistake.  This leads me to a story about a really smart, highly paid high tech executive who is very knowledgeable about investing; but he hired an advisor:

It’s not because he lacks the knowledge or interest, obviously. Rather, he figured out he had behavioral blind spots and understood he was at risk of great financial loss. He’s paying someone just to take that risk off his plate.

Determining your goals, controlling risk, managing portfolios well, and knowing your limitations – knowing you have “blind spots” – has led many smart people to hire an advisor.

Vanguard, the hugely successful purveyor or no-load mutual funds (that appeal to do-it-yourselfers) estimates that a financial advisor is worth about 3% net in annual returns.  They attribute this to the seven services that a good advisor provides:

  1. Creating a suitable asset allocation strategy.
  2. Cost-effective implementation.
  3. Rebalancing
  4. Behavioral coaching
  5. Asset location
  6. Spending strategy.
  7. Total return versus income investing.

How Korving Can Help

If you have an advisor but he is not meeting your objectives, ask us for a second opinion.  If you don’t have an advisor but may want one, we offer a free one-hour consultation to see if we are compatible.

Do you have questions about retirement? You’re not alone.

Charles Schwab recently conducted a survey of people saving for retirement and found that saving enough for retirement was the single most force of financial stress in their lives; … greater than job security, credit card debt or meeting monthly expenses.

A new survey from Schwab Retirement Plan Services, Inc. finds that saving enough money for a comfortable retirement is the most common financial stress inducer for people of all ages. The survey also reveals that most people view the 401(k) as a “must-have” workplace benefit and believe they would benefit from professional saving, investment and financial guidance.

Most people who come to see us have concluded that they need professional help.  They have some basic questions and want answers without a sales pitch.

survey_image1

They know that they need to save for retirement but don’t know exactly how.

  • The want to know how much they need to save.
  • They want to know how they should be investing their 401(k) plans.
  • They wonder if they should put money into a Regular IRA or a Roth IRA.
  • They know they need to invest in the market but are concerned about making mistakes.

Only 43 percent know how much money they may need for a comfortable retirement, which is significantly lower than awareness of other important targets in their lives, including ideal credit score (91%), weight (90%) or blood pressure (77%).

“With so many competing obligations and priorities, it’s natural for people to worry about whether they’re saving enough for retirement;” said Steve Anderson, president, Schwab Retirement Plan Services, Inc. “Roughly nine out of ten respondents told us they are relying mostly on themselves to finance retirement. It’s encouraging to see people of all ages taking responsibility for their own future and making this a top priority.”

But you don’t have to go it alone.  At Korving & Company we are investment experts.  And we’re fiduciaries which mean that we put your interests ahead of our own.

Contact us for an appointment.

How much annual retirement income will you have?

Most people believe that their home is their most expensive thing they’ll ever pay for.  They’re wrong.  The most expensive thing people ever pay for is retirement. And they’ll pay for it after they quit working.

That’s why it’s important to have a clear idea of what you’re getting into before you decide to tell your employer that you’re leaving.

The typical retiree’s sources of income include Social Security.  They may have a pension, although fewer companies are offering them.  If there is a gap between those sources of income and their spending plans, the difference is made up by using their retirement savings.

Running out of money is the single biggest concern of retirees.  The big question is how long we will live and the amount we can draw from our savings before they are depleted.

For simplicity, let’s assume: You’re ready to retire today and plan to have your retirement savings last 25 years. You’ve moved your savings into investments that you believe are appropriate for your retirement portfolio. The investments will provide a constant 6% annual return. You’ll withdraw the same amount at the end of each year.

If you saved this amount Here’s how much you could withdraw annually for 25 years
$100,000  $7,823
$200,000 $14,645
$300,000 $23,468
$400,000 $31,291
$500,000 $39,113
$600,000 $46,936
$700,000 $54,759
$800,000 $62,581
$900,000 $70,404
$1,000,000 $78,227

Keep in mind that these examples don’t include factors such as inflation and volatility that can have a big impact on your purchasing power and account value.

For example, if inflation were 4% a year, a withdrawal of $31,291 25 years from now would only be worth $11,738 in today’s dollars.

Investment losses would decrease your account’s growth potential in subsequent years. To account for these factors, you might need to save even more.

Many experts estimate that you’ll need 80% or more of your final annual salary each year in retirement. Social Security may only provide around 40% of what you need. And don’t forget that retirees typically have different types of expenses compared to people still in the workforce, such as increased health care and travel costs.

This is why planning is so important.  A financial plan will provide you with answers to many of these questions.  Retirees also need to reduce the chances that their portfolio will experience major losses due to market volatility or taking too much risk.  This is where a Registered Investment Advisor who is also a Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) can help.  At Korving & Company we prepare retirement plans and, once you approve of your plan, we will manage your retirement assets to give you peace of mind.

Buying insurance and annuities

Two kinds of insurance products are often sold as investments, and should not be:

  • Life insurance
  • Annuities

There may be a place for both of them in your financial plan.  But they are often bought for the wrong reason because they are often misrepresented by the agent or misunderstood by the buyer.

Insurance products are complex and difficult for a layman to understand.  Let’s first review the basic purpose of these products.

Life insurance – its primary purpose is to replace the income that is lost to a family because of the premature death of the primary earner.  A young family with one or more children should have a life insurance policy on the earners in the family.  Ideally the insurance is will allow the survivors to continue to live in their accustomed style and pay for children’s education.

This usually means that younger families need more insurance.  However, there will be a trade-off between what a young family needs and what they can afford.  To obtain the largest death benefit, I suggest using a “term” policy.   “Whole Life” policies which have some cash value generally do not provide nearly as much death benefit and are less than ideal as investment vehicles.  Whole life policies are often sold using illustrations showing the accumulation of cash value over time.  What most people don’t realize is that illustrations are based on assumptions that the insurance company is not committed to.  This is the point at which an advisor who’s not in the business of selling insurance can prevent people from making mistakes.

Life insurance can also be used for other purposes.  One popular reason was to pay for estate taxes.  However, changes in the estate tax exclusion amount have made this much less attractive except to the very wealthy.

Annuities – useful for providing an income stream that you cannot outlive.  Like life insurance, it comes in a dizzying array of options that the average layman has trouble understanding. It is also one of the most commonly misrepresented insurance products.

Some of the most heavily promoted annuities are sold as investments that allow you to get stock-market rates of return without risk.  That’s one of those “too good to be true” offers that some people simply can’t resist.  The problem is that few people either read, or understand the “small print.”  Insurance companies are really not in the business of giving you all the upside of the stock market and none of the downside.  If they did, they would quickly go out of business.

These products are popular with salespeople because they pay high commissions.  Unfortunately they also come with very high early redemption fees that often last from 7 years to as much as 16 years.

If you have been thinking about buying a life insurance policy or an annuity you should first get some unbiased advice on what to look for.  Most insurance agents are honest, but like most sales people they would like you to buy their product.  It would be wise to get advice from someone who is an expert, but who is not getting paid to sell you a product.  There are a number of financial advisors who will provide guidance.  At Korving & Company we are Certified Financial Planners™ (CFP®) and licensed insurance agents, but we do not sell insurance products.   Since we don’t get paid to sell insurance we can evaluate your situation, advise you, and if life insurance or an annuity is what you need we can refer you to a reputable agent who can get you what you need.

Single Women Investment Resources

Women are in charge of more than half of the investable assets in this country.  A recent Business Insider article claims that women now control 51% of U.S. wealth worth $14 trillion, a number that’s expected to grow to $22 trillion by 2020.

Single women, whether divorced, widowed, or never married, have been a significant part of our clientele since our founding.  Widows that come to us appreciate that we listen and take time to educate them, especially if their spouses managed the family finances.  Once their initial concerns are alleviated they’re often terrific investors because they are able to take a long-term view and don’t let short-term issues rattle them very much.

Unfortunately, we have had women complain to us that other advisors that they’ve had in the past did not want to discuss the details of their investments and the strategy employed. Other women have come to us with portfolios that were devastated by inadequate diversification.

Our female clients are intelligent adults who hire us to do our best for them so that they can focus on the things that are important to them.  We are always happy to get into as much detail on their portfolios as they require.  Our focus on education, communication, diversification and risk control has led to a large and growing core of women investors, many of whom have been with us for decades.

Our book, BEFORE I GO, and the accompanying BEFORE I GO WORKBOOK, is a must-have for women who are with a spouse that handles the family finances.  Men who have always handled the family finances should also grab a copy and fill out the workbook.  If something were to happen to them, it would be a tremendous relief to their spouse to have such a resource when taking over the financial duties.

Planning to Retire Someday? Start Planning Today!

A recent survey showed that most Americans don’t want to do their own financial planning, but they don’t know where to go for help.  60% of adults say that managing their finances is a chore and many of them lack the skills or time to do a proper job.

The need for financial planning has never been greater.  For most of history, retirement was a dream that few lived long enough to achieve.  In a pre-industrial society where most families lived on farms, people relied on their family for support.  Financial planning meant having enough children so that if you were fortunate enough to reach old age and could no longer work, you could live with them.

The industrial revolution took people away from the farm and into cities.  Life expectancy increased.  In the beginning of the 20th century, life expectancy at birth was about 48 years.  Government and industry began offering pensions to their employees.  Social Security, which was signed into law in 1935, was not designed to provide a full post-retirement income but to increase income for those over 65.  (Interestingly enough, the average life expectancy for someone born in 1935 was 61 years.)

For decades afterwards, retirement planning for many Americans meant getting a lifetime job with one company so that you could retire with a pension.  The responsibility to adequately fund the pension fell on the employer.  Over time, as more benefits were added, many companies incurred pension and retirement benefit obligations that became unsustainable.  General Motors went bankrupt partially because of the amount of money it owed to retired workers via pension benefits and healthcare obligations.

As a result, companies are abandoning traditional pension plans (known as “defined benefit plans”) in favor of 401(k) plans (known as “defined contribution plans.”)  This shifts the burden of post-retirement income from the employer to the worker.  Instead of knowing what your pension income will be at a certain age and after so many years with a company, now employees are responsible for saving and investing their money wisely so that they will have enough saved to adequately supplement Social Security and allow them to retire.

In years past, people who invested some of their money in stocks, bonds and mutual funds viewed this as extra savings for their retirement years.  With the end of defined benefit pension plans, investing for retirement has become much more serious.  The kind of lifestyle people will have in retirement depends entirely on how well they manage their 401(k) plans, their IRAs and their other investments.

Fortunately, the people who are beginning their careers now are recognizing that there will probably not be pensions for them when they retire.  Even public employees like teachers, municipal and state employees are going to get squeezed.  Stockton, California declared bankruptcy over it’s pension obligations.  The State of Illinois’ pension obligations are only 24% funded.  Other states are facing a similar problem.

In fact, many younger adults that we talk with question whether Social Security will even be there for them.  They also realize that they need help planning.  Traditional brokerage firms provide some guidance, but the average stock broker may not have the training, skills or tools to create an unbiased financial plan; many are only after your investment accounts or using the plan to persuade you to buy an insurance product.  Mutual fund organizations can offer some guidance, but getting personal financial guidance via an 800 number is not the kind of personal relationship that most people want.

Fortunately there is another option.  The rapidly growing independent RIA (Registered Investment Advisor) industry offers personal guidance to help people create and execute a successful financial plan that will take them from work through retirement.  Many RIAs are run by Certified Financial Planner (CFP™) professionals.  Many are fiduciaries who put their clients’ interests ahead of their own.  And many, including us, offer financial plans for a fixed fee as a stand-alone line of business, meaning that we don’t push or require you to do anything else with us except create a plan that you’re happy with.  Contact us to find out more.

What Are Your retirement Goals?

A recent issue of Financial Advisor magazine reports that “millennials” (people between age 18 and 34) view retirement goals differently from their parents.

Instead of viewing retirement starting at a certain age, like 65, millennials expect to retire when they reach a certain financial goal.

Fifty-three percent of millennials view retirement as the start of something exciting. In comparison to their elders, 21 percent of millennials are more likely to make pursuing a passion, furthering their education or starting or growing their own business their priorities in retirement.

We at Korving & Company are in the business of helping people achieve their financial goals. How do you view your financial goal? Please use the response button below to let us know.

How Advisors Can Help Surviving Spouses

Investopedia published an article we authored.

When the subject of death comes up, a term that’s often used to describe the feelings of those left behind is “loss.” But there is more to that loss than the loss of companionship. There’s also the loss of information, especially if the person who died also handled the family finances.
In my 30 years of experience advising families I have often had to help and council widows who depended on their husbands to manage the family finances. It’s fairly common for families to have several investment relationships.

It’s quite rare to find that the spouse who managed the money actually did a good job keeping records and keeping his spouse “in the loop” when it comes to money management. And when her spouse dies, the widow has to deal with a host of organizations whose primary focus is on making sure that they don’t distribute money to anyone who is not entitled to it. The liability is too great. So we typically have a widow dealing with the death of a loved one, plus the Social Security Administration, the husband’s pension plan, and two, three or more brokerage firms who handled the couple’s investments. (For more, see: Estate Planning: 16 Things to Do Before You Die.)

Who Handles the Finances?

One of my earliest experiences was with a widow whose husband took care of all the family finances. He made the investment decisions, paid the bills and balanced the checkbook. He died suddenly and his wife did not know what to do. Childless and with no near relatives, she needed help. (For more, see: Estate Planning for a Surviving Spouse.)
While her husband’s will was up to date, during our first meeting she revealed that she knew nothing about her financial condition. She did not know how much she was worth, what her income sources were or what it cost her to live.

It took a while to learn where all the investments were, what her income sources were and how much she needed to maintain her lifestyle. (For related reading, see: Advanced Estate Planning: Information for Caregivers and Survivors.)
Over the years I found that this situation was not uncommon. Balancing a checkbook, paying bills and making investment decisions does not appeal to a lot of people. They are happy to allow their partner to do that for them. The problem with this division of labor does not appear until the individual in charge of the finances disappears either through death or incapacitation.

Helping Manage the Transition

This is the point at which a trusted financial advisor can ride to the rescue. A good one is willing to go through records to see what it takes to run the household. He will be able to determine the survivor’s income. He will know how to identify the family’s investment and bank accounts even if the records are incomplete. Just as important, a financial advisor should be willing to provide more than simply financial advice to the surviving spouse. This is the point where questions arise about selling the extra car, upgrades around the home, moving to be nearer the children – or moving into a senior living facility.

These may well be the questions a trusted advisor is able to answer. (For more, see: 6 Estate Planning Must-Haves.)
Advisors who are simply money managers will, at this point, probably find themselves replaced. According to PriceWaterhouseCoopers’ Global Private Banking/Wealth Management Survey, 2011, more than half (55%) of the survivors will fire their financial advisor following the death of a spouse. A lot of that will be due to the changing level of service that a surviving spouse needs. (For related reading, see: Why Do Widows Leave Their Advisors?)
But there is actually a better answer to the financial confusion that often follows a death. The best time to gather comprehensive information about family finances is when the couple is still alive.

Why a Will Might Not Be Enough

With due respect to the legal profession, will and trust documents are written to specify how assets are to be distributed at death. With few exceptions, they rarely get down to the kind of detail that allows the surviving spouse to take up where the deceased has left off.
What is needed is a specific book of instructions itemizing financial assets, their location and their ownership. Income will be vitally important to the surviving spouse. Realizing that income will change once one’s spouse dies, it’s important to know what the survivor’s income sources will be.

Finally, the cost of maintaining the surviving spouse can be determined while both are still alive much more easily than after one has passed away. And since so many transactions now take place via password protected Internet portals, the survivor needs a list of those portals and passwords. (For further reading, see: The Importance of Estate and Contingency Planning.)
When someone dies, the surviving spouse will always have a period of grieving. But if a little though is given to preparing for the inevitable, grief does not have to be accompanied by fear of an unknown financial future.

To make it easy for couples who want to plan, purchase a copy of our book: BEFORE I GO and the BEFORE I GO WORKBOOK.

For more information call 757-638-5490 or use our contact page today!

Who, exactly, are these financial advisors

There’s a really great article on the CNBC website that discusses the question of what financial advisors are.  There is a lot of confusion because people use the term “financial advisor” for a group of people who are really different.  There is less confusion in the medical field because we distinguish between various kinds of doctors.  When you have a medical problem you distinguish between a pediatrician, a heart surgeon, a dentist or a psychiatrist.   They’re all doctors but people know there’s a lot of difference between them.

The same thing is true of financial advisors.  They could be a stock broker, an insurance salesman, or a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA).

Here is one important difference between brokers (technically known as Registered Representatives) who work for investment firms like Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, UBS or other major firms and investment advisors.

Brokers can only offer you investment advice that is incidental to them buying or selling financial products, whereas investment advisors are professionals who are paid by you to give you advice — advice that is in your best interest. The latter is called a fiduciary responsibility.

Before engaging an advisor, Ask yourself these key questions:

  • Are you looking for advice on individual stocks or someone to manage a diversified portfolio for you?

  • Are you looking for a product to solve a problem or a long-term financial plan?

  • Are your assets straightforward, or will you need more coordination because of complex estate-planning issues?

  • Are you an employee of a company, or might you be dealing with potentially complex tax issues, like selling your business?

  • Are your issues acute and immediate, or will they be ongoing or recurring?

  • How much do you want to rely on the recommendations of your advisor, or do you want to be the ultimate arbiter of what’s best for you, whether to follow a recommendation or not?

  • Are you prepared to evaluate each recommendation to determine whether it’s aligned with your needs?

These questions will help you determine what kind of financial advisor you need.

Feel free to contact us to answer some of your questions.

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